Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression

kya aap maanate hain ki har baar ek kaidee ko sanyukt raajy mein nishpaadit kiya jaata hai, aath bhavishy kee hatyaen vichalit ho jaatee hain? kya aap maanate hain ki chhupa hathiyaar rakhane ke lie laisenseekrt naagarikon kee sankhya mein 1% kee vrddhi raajy kee hatya dar mein 3.3% kee kamee ka kaaran banatee hai? kya aap maanate hain ki 1 99 0 ke dashak mein aparaadh mein giraavat ka 10 se 20% garbhapaat mein vrddhi ke kaaran huee thee? ya agar sanyukt raajy amerika ne itanee naee jelen nahin banaeen to 1 9 74 ke baad se hatya kee dar mein 250% kee badhotaree hogee?

yadi aap inamen se kisee bhee adhyayan se gumaraah kar rahe hain, to aap ek jank vigyaan ke vinaashakaaree roop se gir sakate hain: ganiteey modal ke upayog ke saath polisee nishkarsh nikaalane ke lie koee anumaanit kshamata nahin dikhaaya gaya hai. ye adhyayan atiprabhaavashaalee prabhaavashaalee hain. pratishthit sansthaanon ke sammaanit saamaajik vaigyaanikon dvaara likhit, ve sahakarmee kee sameeksha kee gaee vaigyaanik patrikaon mein aksar dikhaee dete hain. jatil saankhyikeey gananaon se bhara hua, ve sateek sankhyaatmak “tathy” dete hain jinhen neetigat tarkon mein vaadon ke ank ke roop mein istemaal kiya ja sakata hai. lekin in “tathyon” o wisps hoga o ek adhyayan par syaahee sookhane se pahale, doosara pooree tarah se alag “tathyon” ke saath prakat hota hai. unakee vaigyaanik upasthiti ke baavajood, ye modal kisee upayogee ganiteey modal ke lie maulik maanadand ko poora nahin karate: bhavishyavaaniyaan banaane kee kshamata jo yaadrchchhik mauke se behatar hotee hai

yadyapi arthashaastree is rahasyamay kala ke pramukh chikitsak hain, samaajashaastree, aparaadhavidon aur any saamaajik vaigyaanikon ke paas bhee isake sanskaran hain. ise “arthametrik modaling,” “strakcharal sameekaran modaling” aur “path vishleshan” sahit vibhinn naamon se jaana jaata hai. ye sabhee kaaranon ke beech ke sambandhon ka upayog karane ke tareeke hain jisase maulik nishkarsh paida hote hain. is ke saath samasya, jaisa ki kisee bhee vyakti ko aankadon mein ek kors hota hai, vah yah hai ki sahasambandh koee kaaran nahin hai do char ke beech sambandh aksar “nakalee” hote hain kyonki ve kuchh teesare char ke kaaran hote hain ikonomikatrik modalar apane vishleshan mein sabhee praasangik char ko shaamil karake is samasya ko door karane kee koshish karate hain, jo “kaee pratigaman” naamak ek saankhyikeey takaneek ka upayog karate hain. yadi kisee bhee sabhee kaaranon ke charaneey upaay hain, to yah kaam karega lekin deta kabhee bhee achchha nahin hota hai saarvajanik neeti ke savaalon ke nishchit uttar praapt karane ke lie kaee pratigaman ka upayog karane ke doharae gae prayaas viphal hue hain.

lekin kaee saamaajik vaigyaanik viphalata sveekaar karane ke lie anichchhuk hain. unhonne varshon se pratigaman modaling seekhane aur shikshan ke lie samarpit kiya hai, aur ve apane deta ke aadhaar par uchit tark nahin karane ke lie pratigaman ka upayog jaaree rakhate hain. main in tarkon ko kaee pratigaman ke mithakon ko bulaata hoon, aur udaaharanon ke roop mein main hatya dar ke chaar adhyayanon ka upayog karana chaahata hoon i

ek mithak: adhik bandooken, kam aparaadh

yel vishvavidyaalay ke ek arthashaastree jon lot ne ek arthamitrik modal ka istemaal karane ka tark diya ki “naagarikon ko chhupa hathiyaar rakhane ke lie hinsak aparaadhon ko rokata hai, bina aakasmik mauten badh jaatee hain.” lot ke vishleshan mein shaamil “kaanoon jaaree karega” jo sthaaneey praadhikaariyon ko kisee bhee kaanoon-paalan karane vaale naagarik ko chhupa hathiyaar paramit jaaree karane kee aavashyakata hotee hai jo ek ke lie aavedan karata hai lot ne anumaan lagaaya hai ki aabaadee mein bandook ke svaamitv mein har ek pratishat kee vrddhi hatya dar mein 3.3% kee kamee ka kaaran banatee hai lot aur unake sah-lekhak devid mastard ne 1 99 7 mein intaranet par apane adhyayan ka pahala sanskaran post kiya aur hajaaron logon ne ise daunalod kiya. yah polisee foram, akhabaar kolam, aur varld vaid veb par aksar kaaphee parishkrt bahas ka vishay tha. aakarshak sheershak ke saath ek pustak mein, adhik bandooken, kam kraim, lote ne apane aalochakon ko taana maarate hue, vigyaan ke aage vichaaradhaara lagaane ka aarop lagaate hue

loth ka kaam saankhyikeey ek-unmukhata ka ek udaaharan hai unake paas adhik deta aur vishay ka adhyayan karane vaale kisee aur ke alaava ek aur jatil vishleshan hai. vah maang karata hai ki jo koee apanee tark ko chunautee dena chaahata hai, vah jatil jatilataon par aadhaarit ek bahut hee jatil saankhyikeey bahas mein visarjit ho jaata hai, taaki ve saamaany deskatop kampyootaron ke saath nahin kiya ja sake. vah un logon ko chunautee deta hai jo apane deta set ko daunalod karane aur unakee gananaon ko phir se karane ke lie asahamat hain, lekin adhikaansh saamaajik vaigyaanik yah nahin maanate hain ki ve baar-baar viphal hone vaale tareekon ka istemaal karate hue adhyayan kee nakal karate hain. adhikaansh bandook niyantran shodhakartaon ne sirph lot aur sarason ke daavon ko mita diya aur apane kaam ke saath chale gae. do atyadhik sammaanit aaparaadhik nyaay shodhakartaon, phraink jimeering aur gordan hokins (1 99 7) ne ek lekh likha jisamen likha gaya tha ki:

jaise ki mesars lot aur sarason, hatya ke nirdhaarakon ke ek modal ke saath, saankhyikeey avasheshon ka utpaadan kar sakate hain jo sujhaav dete hain ki kaanoon jaaree karega hatya ko kam karega, ham ummeed karate hain ki ek nirdhaarit arthametrik vibhinn modalon ke saath hee aitihaasik kaal ka ilaaj kar sakata hai vipareet prabhaav ikonomikrik modaling, kisee bhee pattee ke sachche vishvaasiyon ke dilon ko garm karane ke lie saankhyikeey nishkarshon kee suvidha ke lie apanee kshamata mein dodhaaree talavaar hai.
ziming aur hokins sahee the. ek varsh ke bheetar, do nirdhaarit arthamiti, daan blaik aur dainiyal nagin (1 99 8) ne ek adhyayan prakaashit kiya hai ki yadi unhonne saankhyikeey mod badal diya

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